EDITED AFTER THE CEREMONY

Look, every year the awards are becoming more predictable. Tonight is all about sushi and sake, shouting “yes, chef” and taking care of your mental health, being more attentive and careful with social media. Yes, Shogun will make history, The Bear maintains its preference in the wrong category (they are not comedies!) and Baby Reindeer will take home the awards wherever it is nominated. I want and root for Only Murders in the Building to win, so I dream of the underdog!

Updated predictions anticipating tonight, imagining if there were surprises.

EDITED: And there were indeed important and unexpected choices!

Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Matt Bomer (Traveling Companions, Showtime)
Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer, Netflix)
Jon Hamm (Fargo, FX)
Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, Disney Plus)
Andrew Scott (Ripley, Netflix)

Favorite: It’s Richard Gadd’s. Underdog? Andrew Scott, is an underdog with chances and class, don’t you agree? I’m rooting for him. Gadd put on a show and there’s a monologue that makes him unbeatable, when he explains the sexual abuse he suffered. That said, Scott’s development is sublime, intense, and impressive. Can I say I’m rooting for him? I am.

EDITED: In the Limited or Anthology Series field, Baby Reindeer’s dominance was more than expected. Just like with Shogun, he only “lost” in the supporting cast field.

Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country, HBO/Max)
Brie Larson (Chemistry Lessons, Apple)
Juno Temple (Fargo, FX)
Sofia Vergara (Griselda, Netflix)
Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs. the Swans, FX)

Favorite: The winner should be Naomi Watts and the underdog would be Juno Temple for her incredible work in Fargo. I was rooting for Naomi until I saw Fargo… if there is an underdog, it will be deserved!

EDITED: Perhaps the biggest underdog of the night, because True Detective: Night Country was not unanimous, Jodie Foster’s win was surprising. Her performance was excellent, but Jodie is truly one of the greatest actresses of her generation and one of the most awarded. We should have remembered her status before ruling her out, but Jodie Foster is so simple and far from stardom that we left her out.

She wouldn’t have been my choice, Juno Temple had a more complex role, but it wasn’t unfair. It’s ironic to say that Jodie was the underdog… but she was!

Best Limited or Anthology Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Chemistry Lessons (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

The winner will be Baby Reindeer, but in a parallel universe, Ripley or Fargo could be underdogs. It’s the toughest choice of the night, which Shogun cleverly managed to escape by moving to the series category because there’s a second one on the way.

If it wasn’t ‘Baby Reindeer’, I’d say the underdog would be Ripley. Or maybe?

EDITED: No surprises.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show, Apple)
Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age, HBO/Max)
Maya Erskine (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Anna Sawai (Shogun, FX)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown, Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show, Apple)

The favorite of the night is Anna Sawai who will make history (and deserves it) as the first foreign Asian actress to win an Emmy. “IF” it weren’t for her, I would be rooting for Carrie Coon because I’m in love with The Gilded Age. Honestly, Anna is not a dark horse here…

EDITED: There were no surprises.

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Idris Elba (Highjack, Apple)
Donald Glover (Mr. and Mrs. Smith, Prime Video)
Walton Goggins (Fallout, Prime Video)
Gary Oldman (Slow Horses, Apple)
Hiroyuki Sanada (Shogun, FX)
Dominic West (The Crown, Prime Video)

Can we say there’s a strong risk of an underdog? Yes, the favorite is Sanada Hirouyuki for Shogun, another highly anticipated story. But the growing popularity of Slow Horses cannot be forgotten and Gary Oldman is a God among actors. It’s another favorite series of mine, I wanted to see him win an award, but who knows next year? Still, since the promise is to talk about underdogs, Oldman would be the name.

EDITED: There was no surprise.

Best Drama Series
The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Amazon Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (Apple TV +)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Amazon Prime Video)
Shogun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
The 3-Body Problem (Netflix)

Another announced category where the chance of an underdog is non-existent, especially since in the pre-Emmys Shogun has already secured no less than 14. Talking about an underdog here is almost heresy, BUT, if there was one, it would be with Slow Horses.

EDITED: There was no surprise.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows, FX)
Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO/Max)
Steve Martin (Only Murders in The Building, Hulu)
Martin Short (Only Murders in The Building, Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White (The Bear, FX)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservoir Dogs, FX)

A problem of the night. The Bear is not a comedy, but since it is here, the favorite winner is Jeremy Allen White, the 2023 winner. Even if it weren’t, it would be difficult because Only Murders in the Building is at the height of its popularity, giving a chance to Martin Short or Steve Martin, who are super strong in the campaign. A real surprise would be to give it to Larry David for the final season of his series.

EDITED: What a surprise! Hacks, which is effectively a Comedy Drama, broke the spell of The Bear and took home the award for Best Comedy. I love Hacks, I didn’t love the award-winning season, but the “alienation” was historic. I don’t know if Hacks wanted to be remembered as a surprise, but it was important in several aspects.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary, ABC)
Ayo Edebiri (The Bear, FX)
Selena Gomez (Only Murders in The Building, Hulu)
Maya Rudolph (Loot, Apple)
Jean Smart (Hacks, HBO/Max)
Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale, Apple TV+)

It’s the same case, The Bear shouldn’t be here so the favorite is Ayo Edebiri. And given the fact that Jean Smart already won and Hacks lost its rhythm, I wanted the underdog to be Selena Gomez and Only Murders in the Building. Unlikely!

EDITED: I loved being wrong, but I felt for Ayo Edebiri, the only one in the cast to be excluded even after having won all the awards of the year. I guessed wrong because Jean Smart had already won before for the role and I wasn’t in love with the season of Hacks. Jean is a great actress, she could never have been ruled out. The “underdog” has several explanations and it was an important moment when everyone started to see that the reaction to The Bear being in the wrong category was not an impression…

Best Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO/Max)
Hacks (HBO/Max)
Only Murders in The Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservoir Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

I would be wrong because The Bear is the favorite, but I still feel underdog vibes for Only Murders in The Building.

EDITED: The “underdog” of the night that I didn’t expect in a thousand years. Hacks also has a lot of drama, but it’s more fun than The Bear and for everything it was before the third season, it deserved the win.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age)
Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Greta Lee (The Morning Show)
Lesley Manville (The Crown)
Karen Pittman (The Morning Show)
Holland Taylor (The Morning Show)

The favorite is Elizabeth Debicki again as Princess Diana. The Crown is over, folks. If it were really fair, I’d give it to Lesley Manville, but the underdog would be Christine Baranski for The Gilded Age.

EDITED: No surprises.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun)
Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Mark Duplass (The Morning Show)
Jon Hamm (The Morning Show)
Takehiro Hira (Shōgun)
Jack Lowden (Slow Horses)
Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)

In this case, even though I want recognition for Jack Lowden in Slow Horses, I’m rooting for Takehiro Hira in Shogun. An underdog in itself.

EDITED: I liked Billy Crudup and the fact that many people include him as an underdog shows why I was wrong in my guess. I was wrong because I was really rooting for Shogun, but it was a competitive category. But in the best season of The Morning Show so far, Billy was central, and yes, the Emmy was fair.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Carol Burnett (Palm Royale)
Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear)
Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building)

You know I have a divided heart because everyone in Abbott Elementary deserves it, but my favorite is Meryl Streep. Underdog? That would be Liza Colón-Zayas from The Bear.

EDITED: Look at the ‘Underdog’ right! Liza gives a show in The Bear and her emotion was worth every second of the surprise. It’s not your fault that the series isn’t a comedy.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce (The Bear)
Paul W. Downs (Hacks)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)
Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building)
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

The favorite is Ebon Moss-Bachrach, but a possible underdog? Tyler James Williams, but there’s little chance of a surprise here.

EDITED: There were no surprises.

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series
Dakota Fanning (Ripley)
Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge)
Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)
Aja Naomi King (Chemistry Lessons)
Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans)
Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer)
Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country)

My favorite underdog would be Dakota Fanning, but tonight’s Jessica Gunning.

EDITED: No surprises.

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series
Jonathan Bailey (Traveling Companions)
Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Sympathizer)
John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country)
Lamorne Morris (Fargo)
Lewis Pullman (Chemistry Lessons)
Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs. The Swans)

This is the most open category of the night, so I’m betting on Jonathan Bailey, but without conviction.

EDITED: Since I didn’t have any favorites, I was doomed to make a mistake here. Lamorne Morris’ victory was a great one and at least Fargo’s great season got its recognition. The upset was worth it.

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