We are beginning four intense months of speculation, red carpets, and bets to comment on “the best of the year”. As is tradition, the Golden Globes open the season and its importance is precisely that of making the “first cut”. Changes up to the Oscars are possible but in a limited way.

In Brazil’s case, the proud eyes are on Fernanda Torres and her correct and deserved nomination as Best Actress, 25 years after her mother, Fernanda Montenegro. Fernanda’s chances are not small and I insist, more realistic and possible than Fernandona’s in 1999. Sony is giving her strong support, but, more importantly, the Academy has already opened up its range and has been awarding foreign artists in foreign films and, let’s not forget, the theme of I’m Still Here now speaks to Americans terrified of Trump’s return to the presidency. And, within this logic, the other half may reject her precisely because they support the hard line. Let’s keep an eye on it! Nicole Kidman and Ralph Fiennes are still the favorites for Best Actress and Actor in a Drama, but there is strong competition from the cast of The Brutalist.

In the TV field, there is more strangeness. Many of the nominees are still those who “have already done it” for us, but we will probably see Shogun and Baby Reindeer repeating the Emmy Awards sweep. They will seem “old.” Be warned!

Below I share the list of nominees with comments. When you hear it, and from now on the “thermometer” will be the comma of many texts, it will be important to contextualize what the Golden Globes actually signal: here are some of the most popular as well as those who traditionally have their work praised (Kate Winslet, I’ll talk about you in a moment!). There are already results from heavy marketing campaigns and from now until January this is what will count to retain votes. Therefore, merit has less weight than popularity and persuasiveness. A bad reality of awards, but inherent to the competitions.

Let’s go to the nominees?

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Best Actor – Comedy
Jeremy Allen White
Adam Brody
Ted Danson
Steve Martin
Jason Segel
Martin Short

Best Actress – Comedy
Kristen Bell
Quinta Brunson
Ayo Edebiri
Selena Gomez
Kathryn Hahn
Jean Smart

Best Actor – Drama
Donald Glover
Jake Gyllenhaal
Gary Oldman
Eddie Redmayne
Hiroyuki Sanada
Billy Bob Thornton

Best Actress – Drama
Kathy Bates
Emma D’Arcy
Maya Erskine
Keira Knightley
Keri Russell
Anna Sawai

Best Actor – Miniseries or Motion Picture
Colin Farrell
Richard Gadd
Kevin Kline
Cooper Koch
Ewan McGregor
Andrew Scott

Best Actress – Miniseries or Motion Picture
Cate Blanchett
Jodie Foster
Cristin Milioti
Sofía Vergara
Naomi Watts
Kate Winslet

Best Series – Drama
“The Day of the Jackal”
“The Diplomat”
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
“Shōgun”
“Slow Horses”
“Squid Game”

Best Series – Comedy
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“The Gentlemen”
“Hacks”
“Nobody Wants This”
“Only Murders in the Building”

Best Limited Series – Drama
“Baby Reindeer”
“Disclaimer”
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”
“The Penguin”
“Ripley”
“True Detective: Night Country”

Best Supporting Actress, TV
Liza Colón-Zayas
Hannah Einbinder
Dakota Fanning
Jessica Gunning
Allison Janney
Kali Reis

Best Supporting Actor, TV
Tadanobu Asano
Javier Bardem
Harrison Ford
Jack Lowden
Diego Luna
Ebon Moss-Bachrach

FILM
Best Musical or Comedy
“Anora”
“Challengers”
“Emilia Pérez”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”

Best Drama
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Nickel Boys”
“September 5”

Best Foreign Language Film
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Girl With the Needle”
“I’m Still Here”
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
“Vermiglio”

Best Writing
“Emilia Pérez”
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Real Pain”
“The Substance”
“Conclave”

Best Original Song
“Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl,” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew Wyatt
“Compress/Repress” from “Challengers”
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
“Better Man” from “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” by Clément Ducol and Camille

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”

Best Supporting Actress
Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg – “A Real Pain”
Hugh Grant – “Heretic”
Gabriel LaBelle – “Saturday Night”
Jesse Plemons – “Kinds of Kindness”
Glen Powell – “Hit Man”
Sebastian Stan – “A Different Man”

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, “Nightbitch”
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Zendaya, “Challengers”

Best Actor – Drama
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Best Actress – Drama
Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door”
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Kate Winslet, “Lee”

Best Director
Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker – “Anora”
Edward Berger – “Conclave”
Brady Corbet – “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance”
Payal Kapadia – “All We Imagine as Light”

Better Outstanding Soundtrack for a Motion Picture and Box Office
“Alien: Romulus”
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice”
“Deadpool & Wolverine”
“Gladiator 2”
“Inside Out 2”
“Twisters”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”

Best Soundtrack
“Conclave”
“The Brutalist”
“The Wild Robot”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Challengers”
“Dune: Part Two”

Let’s start placing bets!