As published in Caderno B+

Voting for the 2025 Oscars will end in four days, but the results will only be announced on March 2. We’re talking about just two weeks, but today in Brazil there’s no way to tell the difference between cheering and speculation. After all, we all want Fernanda Torres to be Fernanda Torres for billions of viewers. And the best part is that she not only deserves it, but she has a good chance of winning!

It’s great to cheer, praise, and wait when the honor is given to a consistent, talented, and intelligent artist like Fernanda. Her work in I’m Still Here is unanimous; today she is the favorite in her category for Best Actress. Yes, she is the favorite and I’ll explain why.

The year 2025 ended up being remarkable for several unintentional and embarrassing issues, such as the drama with Karla Sofía Gascón and the discussions about Artificial Intelligence, but it is also one of the most competitive years, all of which fuels the anticipation for Sunday night in the middle of Carnival.

The only one who can stop Fernanda today is Demi Moore for The Substance, in a legendary performance. In the United States, she is the likely winner because she has been accumulating more awards than Fernanda, unfortunately, a warning sign for our blind fans.

It is important to remember that there is no Art in what we are seeing: it is all marketing and investment, including our Fernanda. Strategy is essential to get the votes of those who left it until the last minute and being visible is vital. Demi, in comparison to Fernanda, has a bit of “disappeared”, but no one should forget that she reminded Hollywood that she is a legend, a “popcorn” icon and that she starred in some of the biggest box offices hits and films that did well at the Oscars, such as Ghost.

Demi REALLY wants this Oscar, while Fernanda “wants” the Oscar, but her naturalness, and her genuinely relaxed attitude on the subject help her “make up” for having been snubbed at the BAFTA (the British Oscars) and the SAG Awards (for which she was strangely ignored). Demi is in both and that, my friends, helps her in the final votes. It helps, but it doesn’t guarantee it.

There are two things “against” Demi: The Substance is a niche film of disgusting horror with a very heavy feminist message. In other words, it’s hard to digest and has less distribution.

No one can dare to question her performance, especially if she really “beats” Fernanda on March 2nd. On the other hand, Fernanda’s work is infinitely more powerful and complex.

Fernanda’s friendliness and humor that we Brazilians know further reinforce her performance contained in Walter Salles‘ film. It’s a show of interpretation and has been the actress’s secret weapon in the countless interviews she has been giving for months on American TV. That’s why I firmly believe in her instead of Demi.

I’ll compare it like this: Fernanda Torres is our Olivia Colman. Yes, let’s remember that in 2019, Olivia was the Oscar “underdog” at a party that was announced as the one for (“finally”) Glenn Close. In context, she could only be an underdog because, outside the United Kingdom, Olivia was only known by weird people like me, who devour British series and films. The American public had barely paid attention to her even though her career had already spanned over 20 years and had many successes when she starred in The Favourite. Doesn’t it sound like the same story?

Moving on: just like Fernanda, Olivia Colman was known as a great comedian who transitioned from dramas to thrillers with equal ease. It was hard to see Glenn Close lose yet again and her performance in The Wife was brilliant, but Olivia is Olivia. Since then, she has been racking up awards.

It may be that Demi Moore, who is now the Glenn Close in this equation six years later (with the speech that it is her time) is effectively the one chosen by Hollywood, but I repeat: remember Olivia Colman. Hollywood fell in love with her because, just like Fernanda, she was very confident in who she was before she was nominated. The Oscar helped her win more projects and become famous, but none of that really mattered or matters to her. Her surprise that night resulted in one of the most fun and authentic acceptance speeches in Oscar history. Just like I hope to hear from Fernanda on March 2.

And finally, I won’t deny that every time I sit down to watch the 3 hours long Oscar party, I root for the underdogs to keep me awake and engaged. It will be hard for me to reverse years of consolidated habit. Given that, I don’t want Fernanda to “lose” the element of surprise although her favoritism is undeniable by now.

That’s why I’ll happily watch Demi cry and thank her for her awards announced at the BAFTA and SAG, but I’ll be maliciously thinking about Glenn Close, almost cursing her. It hurts me to be mean, I swear! But, on the night of March 2, I want to see Fernanda Torres dancing samba on stage. It will be a night to never forget. Let’s go, Fernanda!

P.S.: Still on my analogy, may the title of Olivia Colman’s film be 100% applicable in the comparison… Fernanda Torres is my favorite!

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