The Oscars are just a few weeks away and the “end” of the awards season, one of the most “exciting” in the last decade, with so many “underdogs” changing the scenario. Of the awards that directly influence the Oscars, those from the Unions have already signaled some preferences and one of them is a bit hard to swallow.

At the start of the year, at Cannes, two films became critics’ darlings: Anora and Emilia Perez. Including the Best Actress category, which for the first time was awarded to all of Emilia Perez’s actresses (Selena Gomez, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Zoe Saldaña). For the American market, it was decided that Karla Sofía would be the lead actress and the other two would compete as supporting actresses, a strategy that only harmed Selena, since today no one can take away Zoe’s first Oscar.

To tell the truth, only Fernanda Torres and I’m Still Here, although highly praised, failed to make it to Cannes. Demi Moore and The Substance were favorites and Mikey Madison, the star of Anora, was also considered. But Emilia Perez was signaling that she was the “hottest thing” of the year, long before all the controversy that has marked her career today.

Upon arriving in the American market, Fernanda Torres was catching up with her “competitors” in a sprint where winning the Golden Globe defined three future eliminations: Nicole Kidman (another speculated favorite in Cannes), Angelina Jolie, and Kate Winslet. I always remember to treat the subject as a marketing analysis because here Art no longer has the same weight, or at least in isolation it does not define the winner.

Last year, in the Estúdio Pow! Podcast, I made some predictions that have been confirmed over time, and the saddest of them was that Emilia Perez would be the “new” Life is Beautiful: a kind of parasitic film that uses arguments and historical elements carelessly, but that reaches an immediate audience. A film that becomes a kind of “phenomenon” precisely when Walter Salles Jr. brings something spectacular to international cinema. Central Station lost to Italy and everything certainly indicates that Emilia Perez will take the Oscar from I’m Still Here in the foreign film category, giving the victory to France. Unfair 25 years ago, and unfair in 2025. I really hope to come back here to say that I was wrong, but BAFTA and the Union confirm my great fear.

Seriously, I am as sad as I am that Kieran Culkin, as well as Zoe Saldaña, one-note actors, are the winners announced in their categories. The fact that Adrien Brody is the favorite for The Brutalist bothers me not because of a lack of versatility, he is talented, but because his role is essentially the same as in The Pianist. Winning twice for the same type of performance seems like laziness on the part of the Academy. After all, The Conclave is not a Catholic religious film, but a film in which Ralph Fiennes shines once again with his subtlety. I would give him the Oscar, but everyone knows I’m a fan.

The drama generated by Karla Sofía certainly hurt Emilia Perez in the other categories (Actress, Screenplay, Film, Director) and it bothers me that it also hurt Brazil. If it still had a chance for Best Picture, I’m Still Here would have a better chance for Best Foreign Language Film. Now? Thanks, Karla Sofía.

If Emilia Perez leads the ranking of films with the most nominations in 2025 – no less than 13 – many were already betting that The Brutalist, which had been winning everything, would have beaten its competitors. Not at all. While the BAFTA gave The Conclave the Best Film of the Year award, the American Film Guild’s favorite is Anora. Yes, the Cannes winner. Honestly, since I loved the film, I won’t be sad, but it’s another one that will be forgotten before the end of 2025…

So all we can do is root for Fernanda Torres, who still has a good chance. “Against” her is no longer Demi Moore’s favorite, but she has lost her underdog element. I’ve always warned about that. Mikey took the BAFTA away from Demi, the final test between the two will be at the SAG Awards, on Sunday, February 23. If Mikey is elected, she will be Fernanda’s true “opponent” at the Oscars.

What I can celebrate is that in 2025, the SAG is no longer the thermometer, nor was it the BAFTA or other awards for which Fernanda was not nominated for either. Because the others won, it’s true, but they didn’t compete with the Brazilian actress. Being “snubbed” was a matter of timing: I’m Still Here hadn’t yet become a hit in the US or UK when the votes were counted, and that was reversed with the Oscars.

Although I can’t argue with the fact that Cynthia Erivo, Demi Moore, and Mikey Madison were nominated for everything, giving them an advantage, the fact that Fernanda came with an Oscar nomination makes her our potential underdog of the year. And then, all we can do is dance!

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