For many years now, the Oscar ceremony has been a boring night, and we already know exactly who will go on stage and pretend to be surprised. Well, in 2025, it will finally be difficult to make safe bets and the night of the SAG Awards guaranteed a split in the votes that is only good for the public. Anything can happen next Sunday!

Why is it that for the first time the “thermometers” only indicate a mild temperature and not a hot fever? Because none of the parties have all the real nominees, which clearly implies the absence of Walter Salles Jr. and Fernanda Torres, two strong candidates for I’m Still Here who were snubbed at the BAFTA and Guild Awards when Hollywood was still under the influence of Emilia Perez. Thanks to Karla Sofía Gascón, those days are in the past.

There is also a victory, in fact two, that I loved in the TV field: Martin Short and Only Murders in the Building, the preview that at the Emmys the comedy category will bury The Bear and reclaim its genre. I will talk more about this later. First, cinema.

The Supporting Actors category is set at the Oscars, and I am against both wins. Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña have literally won every award so far and have already won. What I don’t like is that they are one-note actors, they are being themselves and both are not only artistically limited: they are irritating.

Taking away Jeremy Strong‘s recognition for The Apprentice is armed robbery, but Hollywood is Hollywood. There is no point wasting time complaining. I will just mention that the timid applause when Emilia Perez was mentioned was deafening and everything that has been discussed in the last month certainly took away Zoe’s shine and happiness when she went on stage. It is almost an embarrassing moment and a rush to cut through the embarrassment of others.

But little did we imagine that among them the actors would be showing that they think very differently from the writers’, directors’, and producers’ unions, which have been giving preference to A Real Pain and Anora. If it were up to the stars, the best film of the year would be The Conclave, which won for best cast precisely in the week that could be preceding a new conclave in Rome, since Pope Francis‘ health is very fragile.

I have friends who hated The Conclave for being formulaic, but honestly, if it’s not I’m Still Here, which is also conventional in its formula, I don’t see any other “better”, not even Anora, which is a delightful but forgettable film. What now? If you need a tip for a pick, go with Anora and Sean Baker, but I confess that I saw Walter Salles Jr.’s chances of making history.

The frozen reaction of the SAG when Emilia Perez was mentioned also makes me realize that I’m Still Here is the favorite for Foreign Language, but, even more so, after the heated speech by Jane Fonda, the evening’s honoree, about the current moment in the United States, fueling the fear of a strong system? I’m Still Here is the most relevant film in Hollywood at the moment. It gave me a lot of hope.

So we come to Best Actor and Best Actress. Demi Moore’s win slowed down Mikey Madison‘s rise, but it didn’t eliminate her. If Karla Sofía hadn’t taken Fernanda Torres‘ place, we would have had a true Oscar pre-game with the three favorites, but now it’s just a mess. There’s no doubt that Demi’s win is “not good” for Fernanda, but I emphasize again that since she wasn’t nominated, it essentially means “nothing.” We’ll only find out on Sunday, and Fernanda is still the favorite.

I confess that I was relieved by the surprise that Adrien Brody, despite a great performance in The Brutalist, didn’t win. It was his first significant defeat at home (the BAFTA doesn’t count), and the fact that it was to Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown was even more unexpected. I consider Timothée to be the best actor of his generation and he arrives here with a consistent and varied body of work, so don’t question him for that. And his speech, improvised!, was the best: he didn’t diminish his effort or desire to be recognized. He wants to be the best and accepts the encouragement. Perfect! I just hope he improves his appearance for the Oscars.

In the TV section, which precedes the Emmys in September, it was quite confusing. Since Baby Reindeer and Shogun were released in January 2024, they were still the owners of the night in their categories, but no one was celebrating or anxious anymore. They ruined the night for the Penguin, who recognized Colin Farrell, but Cristin Millioti will have to wait her turn.

And so we come to Only Murders in The Building. I’m a passionate fan of the series and I was thrilled with Martin Short‘s first recognition, at the age of 74, which came just when he couldn’t be there because he had COVID-19. Imagine how he stayed home after missing this chance to be on stage! So meta that I laughed to myself thinking about it. And the series’ victory, beating The Bear and Hacks, is something to celebrate too.

Jean Smart as Best Comedy Actress for the series is fair, but Hacks is not 100% comedy, it is a comedy-drama with an emphasis on drama, OMITB, on the contrary, is pure laughter and it was more than time to I wish Hollywood would put an end to marketing and recognize the importance of genres. Does this mean that Hacks is not the favorite for the Emmys in September? No, but at least nothing is certain until then and that is more than welcome!

So, with a perfect broadcast of the awards on Netflix, the awards season also regains its spark of interest, leaving us anxious for March 2nd when, finally, everything will be possible. We still have a chance!

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