In almost 100 years of Oscars, there has never been a year like 2025. Anyone who claims to know who will win (apart from the supporting categories) is bluffing. And if there’s one thing that La La Land left as History, it’s that no victory is exactly announced, not even when it happens on stage. There can always be surprises. We Brazilians are certain that we will see I’m Still Here and Fernanda Torres making history, but if we look at some “experts,” we might consider preparing ourselves for it not to be as we want it to be.

I haven’t changed my feelings or hopes; I’ve been like a broken record for a month: Fernanda Torres‘s chances of winning are immense. She is one of the favorites, but this partly goes against her, and Mikey Madison, the lesser-known young actress who gives an incredible performance in Anora, has taken on the role of underdog, with a bigger fan base (from abroad) than our beloved Fernanda. And in the lead is the legendary Demi Moore, never considered a great actress until now, even though she has been in some of the recent Hollywood classics, in a courageous and uncomfortable performance in The Substance. The Oscar podium does not have silver or bronze; only gold counts. Who is the winner?

That’s right: the party is set, we are the ones who still don’t know the result, and it will be announced live. How exciting, right?

There are many sources of predictions that use data from popular vote surveys to try to predict who will win. According to Gold Derby, Fernanda would win bronze today, but I’m Still Here is the favorite for Best Foreign Language Film.

Gold Derby is a reliable source for following trends in the awards season, even if its predictions are not infallible. The site gathers bets from experts and industry insiders, which provides a good overview of the favorites, especially in categories such as Best Picture, Director, and Lead Actors. I’m in a bit of a mood, and I see this “defeat” by Fernanda, which Americans insist on saying is more likely, as a mistake seen from a xenophobic context.

The New York Times reflects what I think and gives Fernanda the statuette. And I’m Still Here, too. In both cases, we should thank Karla Sofía Gascón for having set alight the campaign of Emilia Perez – the film with the most nominations of the night – and indirectly putting Brazil in the lead. Fernanda has more competition, but Walter Salles Jr. is already the favorite.

As for the actress? It’s the biggest suspense of the night. The NYT knows that the race is between Demi and Mikey, giving Fernanda the advantage of being the underdog in the equation. What discourages me is that Variety, which is the Hollywood bible, guarantees that the victory, even if it is close, will go to Demi Moore.

The incredible thing is that the magazine says that Fernanda is the one who should win, but she is dividing the votes of international voters with Mikey Madison, while Demi Moore is the “local” Hollywood favorite. Everything is in her favor: she would be the sixth oldest winner in the history of the category, a message aligned with her film and an incentive for stars like her; in other words, everything that cinema loves.

What the magazine also suggests is that Mikey “wins” over Fernanda because from 1977 to today, all the Best Actresses have been in films that won Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. And in 2025, everyone is betting on Anora. To reinforce this theory a little, this year, all five nominees are in titles nominated for Best Picture.

The feeling that the night will be Demi Moore‘s is shared by the other Hollywood bible: The Hollywood Reporter, which also thinks that Fernanda should win, but that she “arrived late” in the race. That’s because I’m Still Here only entered the cinema circuit in the United States when the competitors were already in full campaign mode. And yes, I’m Still Here will win Best Foreign Language Film.

The summary is this: I’m Still Here “already won” as Best Foreign Language Film, as the media says, a correction to Walter Salles Jr. for not winning for Central do Brasil and an important film for the moment.

As for Fernanda, let’s face it: she’s already the big winner of the season. If she ran into “Demi Moore’s time,” it’s not something to complain about. The party may be half-baked, but, if it goes like this, it’s ours.

Pesquisar

Pesquisar