We can say that with House of the Dragon moving forward with the filming of its third season — possibly its penultimate, if it still loosely follows the outlines of Fire & Blood — the series has, in a way, “not happened.” Calm down: it is a success. But it’s not a phenomenon. And yes, that was the expectation — however unfair it may have been.

I dare say that this would have been the fate of any series set in the world of Westeros that had the difficult task of premiering right after the global frenzy triggered by Game of Thrones. Let’s review: there were multiple options. Bloodmoon, for instance, burned through millions on a pilot that was shelved and never aired. Snow, starring Jon Snow (or rather, Kit Harington), was announced and then quietly postponed without any clear timeline. Amid this uncertain landscape, House of the Dragon was smart. It chose to adapt one of the most intense and impactful segments of the mythology created by George R. R. Martin.

The first season, however, already showed signs of inconsistency. Some significant changes were made from the original source material — and not all fans welcomed them. Even so, there were powerful revelations: the talents of Emma D’Arcy and Milly Alcock were introduced to the world, Paddy Considine’s performance as Viserys moved even the most skeptical critics, and winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama Series seemed to signal that the show had nailed it. But it wasn’t quite so.

At the Emmys, nominations were almost exclusively limited to technical categories. Only once has House of the Dragon made it into the prestigious group of finalists for Best Drama. In 2025, it was completely overlooked. In its defense, this is a particularly competitive year — but the silence from the Television Academy is deafening. Yes, there is a passionate core of fans dissecting every detail, every change, every rumor from the set. But that doesn’t equate to a cultural phenomenon. And so far, the series is not the true heir to the GOT obsession.

This is not about entertaining conspiracy theories, but the behind-the-scenes of HOTD do seem tense. Miguel Sapochnik, the revered director of some of the most acclaimed episodes of Game of Thrones and co-showrunner of the first season, stepped away from the second. George R. R. Martin publicly voiced his dissatisfaction with the creative liberties taken by Ryan Condal, who remains in charge. And fear over what might change in the upcoming season has dominated the show’s forums and fan spaces.

Just this week, for instance, blurry and distant images emerged of a character whose absence had already stirred controversy: Daeron Targaryen. He should have at least been mentioned since the first season, but he will only appear now, in the third. The actor cast in the role is Charlie Gordon, a trans man known for supporting roles in West End musicals. He was spotted filming alongside Matt Smith and James Norton — an odd combination, given that such a meeting never occurred in the pages of Fire & Blood. Physically, he seems like a fitting choice. We’ll see how he performs on screen.

In the end, maybe none of this really matters. The truth is that expectations around House of the Dragon were excessive and extreme from the beginning. Even with a solid foundation and powerful moments, its success — though real — falls far short of what was expected. Creative tensions between writers and producers don’t help build a coherent legacy. And the fact that the show directly impacted the delay and reshoots of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms only adds more pressure.

The big question now is: Is there still time to turn the tide?