When we talk about international cinema, three European festivals always come up as the most important: Berlin, Cannes, and Venice. Each has its own tradition, its own audience, and its own way of thinking about cinema. But when the conversation turns to the Oscars, they don’t all carry the same weight. In the last ten years, the festival that has most clearly stood out as a thermometer for awards season has been, without a doubt, Venice.

Berlin: the most politically and socially engaged

The Berlin Film Festival, also known as the Berlinale, has always been marked by programming that highlights political, social, and engaged cinema. Films about identity, immigration, social crises, and wars. In the 1970s and 80s, Berlin had a strong cultural impact, but today it is seen more as a European prestige festival than as a stage that launches productions toward the Oscars.
The winners of the Golden Bear rarely reach Hollywood’s awards season. Recent examples, like Alcarràs (2022) or On the Adamant (2023), were celebrated in Europe but had virtually no echo in the U.S. In short, Berlin is crucial for affirming socially conscious cinema, but it does not directly resonate with Academy voters.

Cannes: glamour and radical auteur cinema

The Cannes Film Festival is probably the most famous of the three. The iconic staircase, the red carpet, the glamour, the stars competing for the most coveted trophy — the Palme d’Or — are part of the popular imagination. Cannes is considered the temple of cinephilia, the place where great masters and new voices present radical, daring, auteur-driven works.

But precisely because it is so tied to auteur cinema, Cannes does not always serve as a “thermometer for the Oscars.” Many Palme d’Or winners never even reach the Academy’s radar, whether due to limited distribution or because they stand far from Hollywood standards. Still, there are brilliant exceptions. The greatest of the last decade was Parasite (2019) by Bong Joon-ho: it won the Palme d’Or and, months later, made history as the first non-English-language film to win the Oscar for Best Picture. More recently, Anatomy of a Fall (2023) won Cannes and later earned the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. But overall, Cannes rewards films that mark cinema history, not necessarily those that Hollywood crowns.

Venice: the springboard to the Oscars

And this is where we arrive at the Venice Film Festival, which in the past decade has established itself as the true starting point of the Oscar race. Founded in 1932, it is the oldest film festival in the world. But especially since the mid-2010s, its selection has drawn the studios and directors aiming directly at the Academy.

The list speaks for itself: La La Land (2016), The Shape of Water (2017), Roma (2018), Joker (2019), Nomadland (2020), Dune (2021), The Whale (2022), Poor Things (2023), and The Brutalist (2024) — all premiered in Venice, all became Oscar players. Some won Best Picture, others took home awards for acting, directing, or technical categories. More than coincidence, it is strategy: studios realized that launching in Venice means arriving in Los Angeles with momentum.

Venice found a rare balance: it maintains critical prestige but also embraces films with popular appeal, capable of both box-office success and awards recognition. Unlike Cannes, it doesn’t shy away from screening major studio productions, as long as they meet the quality bar. This openness has made the festival irresistible to Hollywood.

So, which is the best thermometer?

Comparing the three, the answer is clear: Venice is by far the festival that best anticipates the Oscars. Cannes remains the sanctuary of cinematic artistry, and Berlin preserves its political and cultural significance. But if the question is “who points to the future Oscar winners?”, Venice sets the tone.

In the end, each festival fulfills its role: Berlin questions, Cannes celebrates boldness, and Venice builds the bridge between international criticism and the Hollywood industry. But it is in Venice that we increasingly see the awards season truly begin.