At this point, the final Emmy ceremony isn’t so much a mystery as it is a script. After two weekends of Creative Arts events — which already set the tone and erase most of the suspense — Sunday should simply rubber-stamp what the numbers and the Academy’s mood have been signaling: it will be a night of confirmations, with maybe one or two surprise wins (if that), but nothing that will rewrite the narrative.

In comedy, The Studio’s momentum is almost unstoppable: a record-breaking number of nominations, a sweep of the craft categories, and that irresistible appeal of being a show about the entertainment industry itself — a combination the Academy loves. Logic points to wins for series, writing, and directing; among the cast, Seth Rogen looks poised for a defining moment, Catherine O’Hara is the sentimental favorite in supporting, and if the wave is truly a “Studio night,” Ike Barinholtz could close out the trio. Hacks remains the most respected challenger, and if anyone is going to break the chain in comedy actress, it will be Jean Smart — and honestly, the Academy rarely resists her when she’s on the ballot.

On the drama side, Severance carries the arithmetic (and symbolic) weight of being the year’s nominations leader and has already scored big in the craft categories. It’s the kind of frontrunner that’s “hard to vote against” when the entire membership casts ballots for the program categories. If there’s going to be a shake-up, it’s called The Pitt — fewer nominations, but lots of critical buzz and a handful of strategic wins at precursor awards that have fueled a “late-breaking momentum” narrative. Still, the safest bet is for Severance to take the series and split the directing/writing roles, with Adam Scott a strong contender for the lead actor. The most unpredictable showdown may actually be in the lead actor, where Noah Wyle could be the sentimental, overdue pick the Emmys love. At the same time, Sterling K. Brown lurks as the name everyone whispers about in last-minute predictions. In the actress, Kathy Bates, in Matlock feels like a symbolic, history-making choice — and a gift to CBS, which is airing the ceremony — but Britt Lower is the ready-made “Plan B” if voters decide to keep the night all-in for Severance.

In limited/anthology, the math and the zeitgeist both push Adolescence to the center of the stage: fewer nominations than The Penguin but global traction, critical heat, and the profile of “the series everyone talked about all year.” The Penguin is likely to get what it came for in acting: Cristin Milioti seems destined for an envelope-bursting win, and Colin Farrell has the kind of performance that caps off an arc with an Emmy. The supporting categories look designed for Adolescence to make a small sweep — Erin Doherty and young Owen Cooper are exactly the sort of emotional double-punch the Academy loves to turn into “moments.” Meanwhile, in drama, The White Lotus keeps its gravitational pull in ensemble categories, which makes Aimee Lou Wood and Sam Rockwell feel like signature wins that tell a story within the story.

Among the variety and talk formats, the sense of inevitability is even stronger. Talk Series feels poised to deliver a cathartic, history-correcting moment for The Late Show With Stephen Colbert — an award that’s long overdue, fueled by the public outcry over its cancellation and its first-ever directing win last weekend. Scripted Variety should honor the living institution: Saturday Night Live is tradition, staying power, and a 50th anniversary that’s simply too perfect to pass up. And since it’s a birthday year, SNL50: The Anniversary Special should prevail among live specials, making the night feel like one long tribute. In Reality Competition, The Traitors looks like it has broken through — Alan Cumming’s second consecutive host win set the tone, and once a show starts winning in this category, it usually sticks for a few years.

The rest is an Emmy ritual. There will be the In Memoriam — thoughtfully staged, with the kind of performance meant to silence the room — and the Bob Hope Humanitarian Award moment to give the audience a collective pause before the final sprint of envelopes. Which is why I say this is less a prediction than a heads-up: the separation of the ceremonies exists to engineer expectation. The Creative Arts shows clearly the runway; the main event just lands the plane. Surprises happen? Of course. One shock here, one “how did that happen?” there, especially in the most crowded acting categories. But recent years have shown that the Emmys rarely deliver an earthquake — just the occasional tremor.

So expect The Studio to stamp its arrival in comedy, Severance to consolidate its reign in drama (with The Pitt always looming as the possible spoiler), Adolescence to dominate limited series, and a handful of acting wins that feel inevitable the morning after — Jean Smart holding steady, Milioti and Farrell peaking at the right time, and co-stars whose names just make sense when you see them engraved. If something wildly unexpected does happen, great — every award show deserves a gasp. But tomorrow night, television will likely choose the comfort of what’s already been agreed upon by the numbers.