Here we go: in two weeks, we’ll officially be talking about the 2026 Awards Season again — speculating, criticizing, praising, rooting, and getting surprised. All because on December 8, the list of nominees for the 2026 Golden Globes will be announced. And yes, we’ll be talking a lot about Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent, which is all but guaranteed a spot among the nominees for foreign-language film and best actor. But I’m calling it right now: the sweeping drama Hamnet will be the big star of the beginning of the year — in best film, actor, actress, score… everything.

And by sheer calendar logic, since the Globes officially open the season, it makes sense to look at who’s leading the race right now — in film and television, where the awards still work as the most sensitive thermometer of buzz, impact, and cultural conversation.

The big shift: when comedy/musical becomes a battlefield

Clayton Davis’ piece in Variety is very clear: the most competitive place this season is not drama, it’s comedy/musical. What was always treated as the “fun category” has, in 2026, turned into the real battleground for the studios.

In the best motion picture – musical or comedy, the board currently looks like this:

• Jay Kelly (Netflix)
• Marty Supreme (A24)
• No Other Choice (Neon)
• One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – predicted winner
• Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)
• Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

So we have a massive musical (Wicked: For Good), a heavy auteur project (One Battle After Another), a weird-ping-pong sports dramedy with cult potential (Marty Supreme), the third entry of Knives Out, a dark South Korean comedy (No Other Choice), and a Netflix original. This isn’t a “light” category — it’s the core of the race.

On the acting side, Davis names Timothée Chalamet as the favorite for best actor in a musical or comedy for Marty Supreme, ahead of George Clooney (Jay Kelly), *Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Brendan Fraser, *Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), and *Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice). The idea of Chalamet winning his first Globe in this terrain — in a strange sports film about ping-pong, directed by the Safdies — is very much the face of this season: pop, auteur-driven, and fiercely competitive at the same time.

In the best actress – musical or comedy, the scenario is even more symbolic: Cynthia Erivo stands as the clear frontrunner for Wicked: For Good, returning as Elphaba in a campaign that is at once theatrical, cinematic, and unapologetically pop. Alongside her, we have Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), who won in Berlin, Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), and Emma Stone (Bugonia). In the alternates column, names like Pamela Anderson (The Naked Gun) and Olivia Colman (The Roses) hover around the conversation, ready to crash the party if the timing works.

Among the supporting performances, the message is similar: Ariana Grande appears as the predicted winner in supporting actress for Wicked: For Good, while Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) complete the trio that draws the most attention for now. In supporting actor, Stellan Skarsgård is the man to beat for Sentimental Value, with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Benicio Del Toro, and *Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) rounding out the top tier.

In other words, if anyone still believed that musical/comedy was the Globes’ “light backyard,” 2026 came to bury that idea.

Drama is still king – but with a more defined map

That said, the drama field remains the territory of classic prestige. The current prediction for best motion picture – drama looks like this:

• Frankenstein (Netflix)
• Hamnet (Focus Features) – predicted winner
• It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
• The Secret Agent (Neon)
• Sentimental Value (Neon)
• Sinners (Warner Bros.)

A lot of what we were already sensing is now clearly on the page:
– Hamnet as the big prestige drama of the season,
– Sinners as a powerful studio drama,
– Sentimental Value as the European darling,
– Frankenstein as Netflix’s monster (pun fully intended),
– and The Secret Agent is firmly positioned as a key piece in both the drama and international races.

In the acting categories, the design is just as clear.

For best actor – drama, the predictions list:

• Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
• Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player)
• Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
• Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
• Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent – PREDICTED WINNER

Yes: in Variety’s projections, Wagner is currently ahead of Michael B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac, and company. That alone would be huge. Add to that the fact that The Secret Agent also appears among the likely nominees for best drama film and best non-English language film, and you’ve got a ready-made narrative: after Fernanda Torres’ breakthrough, Wagner consolidates this Latin — and specifically Brazilian — moment in the season.

For best actress – drama, the dominant name is Jessie Buckley, the predicted winner for Hamnet. The list also includes Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Sydney Sweeney (Christy), and Tessa Thompson (Hedda). Buckley enters the season with that dangerous and powerful label: “locked and loaded contender”. Everyone is already writing her name in pencil — thick pencil.

Behind the camera, a pattern emerges: Paul Thomas Anderson is the frontrunner for best director with One Battle After Another, ahead of Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Mona Fastvold (The Testament of Ann Lee), *Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). In other words, drama and musical/comedy collide here: PTA’s “comedy film” is treated with the same reverence as the heavy dramas.

In the screenplay, the edge goes to Ryan Coogler for Sinners, with Hamnet, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams filling out the field. Train Dreams, by the way, shows up in screenplay, in best actor (Joel Edgerton), and as an alternate in best picture — a very clear sign that it might become one of the season’s slow-burn players.

And on TV? What the awards obsessives are betting on

If in film we have Clayton Davis as our compass, in TV, what we have for now is the beautiful madness of prediction forums — which, let’s be honest, often turn out to be excellent early indicators.

In one of the most organized lineups floating around, the predictions for the best comedy series are:

• Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• The Bear (FX on Hulu)
• Hacks (Max)
• Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• Shrinking (Apple TV+)
• The Studio (Apple TV+)
  Alt: Wednesday (Netflix)

Translation: the expectation is that the Globes will “copy and paste” a good chunk of the Emmys, with The Bear, Abbott, and Hacks at the center, but leaving space for Only Murders, Shrinking, and newer player The Studio. Wednesday shows up as that popularity wildcard that could crash the party.

For best actor – comedy, the same forum suggests:

• Adam Brody – Nobody Wants This
• Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
• Seth Rogen – The Studio
• Jason Segel – Shrinking
• Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
• Jeremy Allen White – The Bear
  Alt: Tim Robinson – The Chair Company

Practically, this means that Jeremy Allen White is still very strong for The Bear; the Steve Martin / Martin Short duo remains solid for Only Murders, and people like Jason Segel and Seth Rogen could enter as the “fresh faces” the Globes love to embrace in comedy.

For best actress – comedy, the picture is:

• Kristen Bell – Nobody Wants This
• Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
• Ayo Edebiri – The Bear
• Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building
• Jenna Ortega – Wednesday
• Jean Smart – Hacks
  Alt: Rachel Sennott – I Love LA

On paper, it’s a dream category:
– Quinta Brunson as the face of network TV comedy,
– Jean Smart as an untouchable veteran force,
– Ayo Edebiri as the breakout talent of the new generation,
– Selena Gomez and Jenna Ortega are representing the power of younger streaming audiences.

Any combination of five names from that list would make for a killer category.

For best drama series, the predictions are:

• The Last of Us (HBO)
• The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
• The Pitt (Max)
• Severance (Apple TV+)
• Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
• The White Lotus (HBO)
  Alt: Wycaro (Apple TV+)

So the Globes are likely to split their attention between HBO’s prestige events (The Last of Us, The White Lotus), the corporate media drama of The Morning Show, and the elegant weirdness of Severance. Slow Horses and The Pitt complete the picture of “adult drama for streaming platforms”.

For best actor – drama, the suggested lineup is:

• Sterling K. Brown – Paradise
• Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager
• Gary Oldman – Slow Horses
• Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us
• Adam Scott – Severance
• Noah Wyle – The Pitt
  Alt: Jon Hamm – Your Friends and Neighbours

For best actress – drama:

• Kathy Bates – Matlock
• Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age
• Britt Lower – Severance
• Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
• Keri Russell – The Diplomat
• Rhea Seehorn – Wycaro
  Alt: Michelle Pfeiffer – The Madison

In a limited series or TV movie, the early predictions include:

• Adolescence (Netflix)
• All Her Fault (Peacock)
• Death by Lightning (Netflix)
• Dying for Sex (FX)
• Monster: The Original Monster (Netflix)
• Task (HBO)
  Alt: Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)

With a cast of leads that includes Robert De Niro, Stephen Graham, Charlie Hunnam, Matthew Macfadyen, Mark Ruffalo, Michael Shannon, Sarah Snook, Michelle Williams, Renée Zellweger, and others. It’s the category where the Globes traditionally like to make a “statement”: reward a very intense, very transformative performance that will generate headlines the next morning.

Now we wait for December 8 to see how much of this crystal ball becomes reality — and how much the Globes will do what they’ve always done best: leave us irritated, thrilled, and, above all, talking about it for weeks.