This year’s Critics’ Choice nominations arrived with that delicious mix of confirmed inevitabilities, strategic surprises, and absences that will echo for weeks to come. It’s no exaggeration to say that, with this list, the game has truly begun — and with several pieces already well positioned on the board.

Sinners in absolute command

The main takeaway is unavoidable: Sinners burst out of the gate as the film of the season. Seventeen nominations are a number that leaves no room for debate. It shows up everywhere: Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, technical categories, Ensemble, Score, Song. When a production appears across almost every conceivable field, it naturally becomes the year’s gravitational center.

It’s the kind of package critics love: dramatic weight, technical polish, aesthetic ambition, and performances that sustain the whole. Sinners doesn’t just lead — it sets the tone.

Close behind, One Battle After Another lands 14 nominations, while Hamnet and Frankenstein are tied with 11 each. Together, they map the taste of 2025/2026: cinema with authorship, texture, and direction that actively shape narrative and atmosphere. Nothing generic here — even when adapting literary works or fantasy worlds, these films arrive with a clear sense of personality.

Bugonia rises, Avatar shrinks

One of the morning’s most revealing shifts is Bugonia entering the Best Picture lineup. Until recently, many assumed Avatar: Fire and Ash was an automatic presence in the expanded lists — but the slot went to Bugonia. That isn’t accidental: the film also shows up in Best Actress (Emma Stone) and Adapted Screenplay, signaling that it isn’t a “left-field” contender, but a genuine force this season.

Avatar, by contrast, was confined to its inevitable territory: Visual Effects. For a project conceived as a mega-event, that stings. The Critics’ Choice makes it clear that scale alone does not define relevance this year.

Wagner Moura crosses borders

One of the list’s most symbolic — and historic — moments is Wagner Moura’s Best Actor nomination for The Secret Agent, alongside the film’s presence in Best Foreign Language Film. It’s rare for a lead performance from an international film to break into the main acting categories. When it happens, the conversation shifts.

The nomination underscores both the strength of the film and the impact of the performance. It marks a real milestone for Latino representation in U.S. awards spaces — and opens the door for The Secret Agent to circulate far more broadly throughout the season.

Best Actor: the most competitive category of the year

The Best Actor lineup makes one thing clear: this race is tighter than it first appeared. Alongside Wagner, the category includes familiar contenders and others now solidifying their chances:

• Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
• Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
• Plus Michael B. Jordan, Lee Byung-hun, and George Clooney, among others

With so many strong films also performing well in top categories, this is the kind of race that can shift week by week. Train Dreams, for instance, gained significant momentum — scoring nominations for Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay — which automatically strengthens Edgerton’s position. Hawke, coming from a more isolated film, is more dependent on voter affection.

The perfect category with the loudest hole: Best Actress

The Best Actress slate is strong across the board — but not without a shadow: the absence of Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good. With six slots available, leaving out the lead actress of a film nominated in multiple categories, including Best Picture, does not go unnoticed.

The Critics’ Choice embraces performances from Amanda Seyfried, Emma Stone, Rose Byrne, Chase Infinity, and others, but the silence around Erivo speaks volumes. She was widely considered a near-lock, and this snub now becomes a ghost the season will either have to exorcise — or confirm — in the rounds ahead.

Directing: del Toro in, major names out

In Best Director, Guillermo del Toro’s inclusion for Frankenstein was expected. The film is a passion project, arriving with the emotional and visual signature critics tend to reward. But his presence also implies notable absences: several directors long considered strong seasonal contenders were left out.

This reinforces one of the year’s broader trends: critics are prioritizing films with a clearly articulated emotional and aesthetic vision — and being more selective with franchise continuations or more overtly political cinema.

Supporting players and screenplays reveal where critics are taking risks

The supporting and screenplay categories help sketch the season’s second layer:

• Amy Madigan and Ariana Grande gain traction in Supporting Actress.
• Jacob Elordi makes an impact with Frankenstein.
• The ensemble of Sinners appears across multiple categories, reinforcing the film’s collective strength.

In screenwriting, the Critics’ Choice sends a clear signal about expanding the conversation:

• Weapons and Sorry Baby appear in Original Screenplay, making space for films outside the obvious axis.
• Train Dreams, Bugonia, Hamnet, and No Other Choice form a solid and varied Adapted Screenplay lineup.

When a film performs well in screenplay, it naturally boosts its acting contenders — which is exactly what’s happening with Train Dreams and Bugonia.

What the list ultimately tells us

This year’s Critics’ Choice doesn’t just ignite the season — it outlines a collective movement.

• Sinners is the most complete contender.
• One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Frankenstein consolidate the season’s prestige core.
• Bugonia graduates from side bet to major player.
• Wagner Moura breaks through the international acting barrier.
• Cynthia Erivo becomes the absence everyone will be watching.
• Several mid-budget, author-driven, risk-taking films break through in the hardest categories — screenplay, supporting, and technical — and gain real momentum.

It’s a list that does more than award: it defines who is allowed to stay in the conversation through Oscar night. And, as always, those left out of the conversation suffer more than those who simply lose the trophy.