The first Golden Globe nominations are out, and the cut of who will be everywhere at every party until March is basically set, putting Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent squarely in the spotlight. But it’s a year full of fierce competition — and injustice — because many of those left off the list are truly deserving. I disagree with many of these choices. Shall we talk about them?

Film

Best Motion Picture – Drama

No surprises among the nominees: Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and It Was Just an Accident. While they’re all fairly even in terms of chances, I’m betting on the full-blown tearjerker Hamnet to take the win.

• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• It Was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

These are also the names that have been circulating since early 2025: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, Nouvelle Vague, No Other Choice, and One Battle After Another.

This is the most unpredictable category of the night, but I’m betting on the Paul Thomas Anderson “fever” and Leonardo DiCaprio’s presence sealing the deal for One Battle After Another.

• Blue Moon
• Bugonia
• Marty Supreme
• No Other Choice
• Nouvelle Vague
• One Battle After Another

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Brazil’s chances here are strongest with The Secret Agent, competing alongside It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, Sentimental Value, Sirât, and The Voice of Hind Rajab.

• It Was Just an Accident
• No Other Choice
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirât
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

I won’t comment because, like Gloria Pires, I don’t feel qualified — but purely as a guess, I’m betting on Zootopia 2.

• Arco
• Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Infinity Castle
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

Best Box Office Achievement

If there’s one ceremony that will snub Tom Cruise, it’s the Golden Globes. There’s no doubt Mission: Impossible would be the best chance to get him in the room, but he returned all of his Globes years ago in protest of the lack of diversity among the voters. Now that time has passed, would they forgive him?

The night here belongs to Wicked. Just sayin’…

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
• Sinners
• Weapons
• Wicked: For Good
• Zootopia 2

Best Director

Year in and year out, the directors’ category remains a boys’ club. Only Chloé Zhao breaks the wave of testosterone. She deserves to be here, but Paul Thomas Anderson will win.

• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners
• Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
• Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Chloé Zhao – Hamnet

Best Actor – Drama

An “almost” fair category — if only they hadn’t included Jeremy Allen White for such a weak film. That helps Wagner Moura’s chances, and at the Globes, he’s the favorite.

• Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams
• Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein
• Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
• Jeremy Allen White – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

The category of the biggest stars of the night — and, for me, a tricky one to predict. Chalamet has a chance, but DiCaprio is hugely popular with the foreign press. I’ll revisit this later.

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• George Clooney – Jay Kelly
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
• Jesse Plemons – Bugonia

Best Actress – Drama

This year is locked in around Jessie Buckley’s astonishing performance as Shakespeare’s wife in Hamnet, dealing with the grief of losing her only son. She has no serious competition here.

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
• Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Julia Roberts – After the Hunt
• Tessa Thompson – Hedda
• Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Earlier this year in Berlin, Rose Byrne won for her performance (and I swear I didn’t even know it was a comedy), and she’s Jessie Buckley’s main competitor for the Oscar. But you can’t forget Emma Stone’s staggering performance in Bugonia. I think this one goes to her.

• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
• Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
• Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
• Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

In a crowded category where heavyweights are campaigning hard for Adam Sandler, I think Jacob Elordi will walk onstage. Both are excellent, but Elordi’s transformation into the Monster is more demanding.

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
• Paul Mescal – Hamnet
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Know who’s going to win? Yes — Ariana Grande. I don’t think it’s fair; I wanted Elle Fanning.

• Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine
• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
• Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Screenplay

Another heavyweight category, but I suspect Ryan Coogler will be recognized here for the massive success of Sinners.

• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners
• Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
• Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet

Best Original Score

How did they leave out Nicholas Britell’s spectacular work on Jay Kelly? I’m betting on Max Richter — or rather, I wish — but it’ll probably go to Radiohead’s genius Jonny Greenwood for One Battle After Another.

• Alexandre Desplat – Frankenstein
• Ludwig Göransson – Sinners
• Jonny Greenwood – One Battle After Another
• Kanding Ray – Sirât
• Max Richter – Hamnet
• Hans Zimmer – F1

Best Original Song

Another highly competitive category. As a fan, I want Bryce Dessner and Nick Cave. Will it happen?

• Miley Cyrus, Andrew Wyatt, Mark Ronson, Simon Franglen – Avatar: Fire and Ash (“Dream as One”)
• Joong Gyu Kwak et al. – KPop Demon Hunters (“Golden”)
• Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Göransson – Sinners (“I Lied to You”)
• Stephen Schwartz – Wicked: For Good (“No Place Like Home”)
• Stephen Schwartz – Wicked: For Good (“The Girl in the Bubble”)
• Nick Cave & Bryce Dessner – Train Dreams (“Train Dreams”)

Television

The biggest injustices are on the TV side — there wasn’t room for everything — but there are some hits here that I truly don’t think belong. HBO has major titles, as does Netflix, but the real strength this year is Apple TV+.

Best Television Series – Drama

It could easily be a tie, but the real battle is between Pluribus and The Pitt. The Breaking Bad creator’s series has fresher memories since it just finished its first season. Still, The Pitt was a phenomenon — even though Severance was widely discussed. My vote is always for Slow Horses, but it has no real chance.

• The Diplomat
• The Pitt
• Pluribus
• Severance
• Slow Horses
• The White Lotus

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

I love all the nominees, but the winner is already The Studio. No need to overthink it.

• Abbott Elementary
• The Bear
• Hacks
• Nobody Wants This
• Only Murders in the Building
• The Studio

Best Limited Series

I know talking about Adolescence a year later feels distant, but this category belongs to that show. No suspense at all.

• Adolescence
• All Her Fault
• The Beast In Me
• Black Mirror
• Dying for Sex
• The Girlfriend

Best Actor – Drama Series

This one hurts, because my love for Andor — and Diego Luna — doesn’t stop me from being realistic: the award is Mark Ruffalo’s for his stunning performance in Task.

• Sterling K. Brown – Paradise
• Diego Luna – Andor
• Gary Oldman – Slow Horses
• Mark Ruffalo – Task
• Adam Scott – Severance
• Noah Wyle – The Pitt

Best Actress – Drama Series

I truly don’t understand Keri Russell being nominated for The Diplomat. Seriously. Even less so Bella Ramsey, who isn’t spectacular in The Last of Us. If Pluribus weren’t so strong, I’d say Britt Lower was guaranteed — but one of Apple TV+’s shows will win. I’m betting on Rhea Seehorn.

• Kathy Bates – Matlock
• Britt Lower – Severance
• Helen Mirren – Mobland
• Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
• Keri Russell – The Diplomat
• Rhea Seehorn – Pluribus

Best Actor – Limited Series

Don’t even bother guessing: Stephen Graham will win for Adolescence.

• Jacob Elordi – The Narrow Road to the Deep North
• Paul Giamatti – Black Mirror
• Stephen Graham – Adolescence
• Charlie Hunnam – Monster: The Ed Gein Story
• Jude Law – Black Rabbit
• Matthew Rhys – The Beast in Me

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy Series

We’re going to witness an injustice here: Seth Rogen will win, but Martin Short deserves it. It is what it is.

• Adam Brody – Nobody Wants This
• Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building
• Glen Powell – Chad Powers
• Seth Rogen – The Studio
• Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building
• Jeremy Allen White – The Bear

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy Series

Yes, Jean Smart will once again walk onstage. She always deserves it.

• Kristen Bell – Nobody Wants This
• Ayo Edebiri – The Bear
• Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building
• Natasha Lyonne – Poker Face
• Jenna Ortega – Wednesday
• Jean Smart – Hacks

Best Actress – Limited Series

This category could go any direction, but I’m betting on Sarah Snook.

• Claire Danes – The Beast in Me
• Rashida Jones – Black Mirror
• Amanda Seyfried – Long Bright River
• Sarah Snook – All Her Fault
• Michelle Williams – Dying for Sex
• Robin Wright – The Girlfriend

Best Supporting Actor

Newcomer Owen Cooper is the favorite here, even with strong performances from the rest.

• Owen Cooper – Adolescence
• Billy Crudup – The Morning Show
• Walton Goggins – The White Lotus
• Jason Isaacs – The White Lotus
• Tramell Tillman – Severance
• Ashley Walters – Adolescence

Best Supporting Actress

As unbelievable as it sounds, Carrie Coon isn’t locked here. I wouldn’t rule out Erin Doherty for Adolescence, but this will probably go to Hannah Einbinder for Hacks.

• Carrie Coon – The White Lotus
• Erin Doherty – Adolescence
• Hannah Einbinder – Hacks
• Catherine O’Hara – The Studio
• Parker Posey – The White Lotus
• Aimee-Lou Wood – The White Lotus

Best Stand-Up Comedy

You know the Globes won’t miss a chance to have Ricky Gervais back onstage, right?

Sarah Silverman – Sarah Silverman: PostMortem

Bill Maher – Is Anyone Else Seeing This?

Brett Goldstein – The Second Best Night of Your Life

Kevin Hart – Acting My Age

Kumail Nanjiani – Night Thoughts

Ricky Gervais – Mortality