There are more awards than platforms these days, or at least that’s how it feels. It’s no coincidence that the Oscars, still the most prestigious of them all, have been losing viewers and earning a reputation for being predictable. From today, January 4, through March 15, when the Academy announces the winners of the year, we will see the same famous faces and the same nominees circulating through every party, every ceremony, every red carpet. There is very little room left for surprise. We have to admit it.

And the season officially opens with the choices made by the critics, who already point to the favorites for the next stages of the race. Here, what matters most is not simply who was nominated, but what these nominations are saying about the narrative of the year. The 31st Critics’ Choice Awards mark this exact turning point, the moment when awards season stops being a hypothesis and becomes a strategy.

Divided between Film and Television/Streaming, and also between Drama and Comedy, the awards already make clear where the real battle is taking place.

In film, the message is direct and anything but shy. Sinners leads with 17 nominations, cementing itself as the film most fully embraced by critics so far. This isn’t momentary enthusiasm, but distributed strength. The Critics’ Choice Awards tend to reward momentum, and Sinners emerges as the title that, at this point, everyone else needs to beat.

Close behind comes One Battle After Another, with 14 nominations, confirming something that has been taking shape since its earliest screenings. This is a film built for a long season. It doesn’t rely on a single category or a standout performance. It shows up everywhere: directing, acting, screenplay, score. It advances through consistency and control. If Sinners is emotional impact and urgency, One Battle After Another is calculation, solidity, and industrial-scale campaign design.

The second tier reveals a very specific critical taste, one oriented toward more classical dramas. Hamnet and Frankenstein, both with 11 nominations, reflect the appreciation for ambitious, dense, prestige literary adaptations. These are films that may not dominate the season, but are unlikely to disappear from it. Even if they don’t look like Best Picture favorites, they are far from decorative contenders.

The Best Picture lineup itself helps clarify the spirit of the race: large-scale productions like Wicked: For Good and Marty Supreme; literary dramas such as Hamnet and Train Dreams; auteur-driven bets like Bugonia and Sentimental Value. Still, the real contest is concentrated on Sinners and One Battle After Another. One driven by cultural urgency, the other by formal command.

The acting categories reinforce this reading. Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme and Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another represent distinct styles of “prestige” performance, while Michael B. Jordan in Sinners clearly rides the film’s collective strength. Wagner Moura’s nomination for The Secret Agent, however, stands out for another reason. Critics are rewarding performances with political and moral weight, not just transformation or showmanship. As a Brazilian, I already know where my vote would go.

Among actresses, the field is more open, which makes the category even more compelling. Emma Stone in Bugonia remains a strong critics’ favorite, but Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value and Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee point to a possible tilt toward more restrained, interior performances, less designed for display. Nothing is settled here. My long-standing prediction is that Jessie Buckley will take everything for Hamnet. As extraordinary as she is, it may still be too early to hand Emma Stone her third Oscar. Or maybe not.

Directing, on the other hand, already shows a clear axis. Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler for Sinners emerge as opposing and central poles of the race. One associated with formal rigor and classical authorship, the other with cultural urgency and political force. The Critics’ Choice nominations make it clear this is not a year for honorary mentions. This is a direct confrontation. Anderson holds an edge because politics are gaining strength in a liberal Hollywood, and his film speaks directly to contemporary American fears.

On television, critics are equally precise. Adolescence, leading with six nominations, is exactly the kind of limited series the Critics’ Choice Awards tend to embrace: contemporary themes, dramatic intensity, and strong central performances. It has already won everything so far, and there’s little reason to expect a different outcome here, even if it now feels distant. The series premiered in January 2025, which explains its presence in this season.

Nobody Wants This, and All Her Fault follow closely behind, and the Peacock+ production, available in Brazil via Amazon Prime Video, confirms the preference for emotionally dense storytelling. The consistent presence of Severance, The Diplomat, Hacks, and The Pitt reinforces a pattern. Critics continue to reward consistency, long-term ambition, and a clear identity. Which one should win? The Pitt.

In the end, these nominations reveal less surprise and more alignment. The Critics’ Choice Awards rarely “discover” something new. They confirm movements already underway. And in 2026, the movement is clear: a season defined by scale, seriousness, and works that want to say something, not just please.

From here on, each guild award will further sharpen this picture. But one thing is already clear. The road to the Oscars inevitably runs through Sinners and One Battle After Another. The rest of the season is chasing them.