If there is one set of nominations that truly matters before the “final nominations” for the Emmys and the Oscars, it is the union’s. In the case of actors, the SAG nominations — now rebranded as the Actor Awards — arrived as one of those moments when the industry, without solemn speeches, reveals what it really thinks. This is not a critics’ prize, nor one for executives or festivals: it is the body of actors saying, in practice, which performances it recognizes as its own, which narratives it buys into, and, above all, which ones it no longer intends to push uphill. In 2026, the message was less fragmented than it initially seemed. There is a clear center, a few gestures of legitimation, and cuts that hurt precisely because they are not accidental.

The axis of the season goes by the name One Battle After Another. Seven nominations, spread across ensemble, leading roles, supporting roles, and even stunts, are not a matter of fashion — they are consensus. The SAG does not merely admire the film — it adopts it. There is something “inevitable” when a work dominates different categories in this way; even those who do not fall in love with the project begin to treat it as the structural reference point of the race. Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, and Sean Penn provide the backbone of prestige, but it is telling that the award also recognized Chase Infiniti as a lead. The debate over whether her role is “lead” or “supporting” matters less than the gesture: the SAG sees her as a narrative pillar, not an appendage. It is the legitimation of a young actress — not through the charm of a breakout, but through her dramatic centrality within the film of the year.

If One Battle After Another embodies the institutional pole, Sinners occupies the space of the work that transcends the genre label and achieves full citizenship. Five nominations, including ensemble, lead, and supporting categories, seal what had already been taking shape: horror is only “lesser” when it lacks human density. Michael B. Jordan emerges as a lead embraced by his peers, and names like Wunmi Mosaku and Miles Caton show how the SAG responds to films built on interaction rather than effects. There is something symbolic in Caton’s inclusion, driven by a single scene that became the emotional heart of the film. Actors often vote by affective memory — when a performance stays in the body, it becomes a vote.

That same criterion helps explain why the SAG consecrated certain projects and turned its back on others. The inclusion of Frankenstein in the ensemble category, for instance, is less about the cohesion of the group and more about the force of a generational presence. Jacob Elordi asserted himself so strongly that he colors the perception of the whole; the award frequently embraces uneven films when it senses real emotional commitment — even if the result is debated. The exclusion of Wicked: For Good from the ensemble category is the opposite: it is not merely a matter of lukewarm reviews or a box-office drop from the first film, but of a loss of internal enthusiasm. The SAG often embraces blockbusters when it identifies a legitimate space for acting within them. By rejecting the second Wicked, it signals that it sees less drama and more machinery, less character and more product. And let’s be honest — many people suspected that splitting the film into two parts would lead to exactly this.

That shift also explains the absence of Cynthia Erivo among the leading actresses. This is not a rejection of the actress, but of the film’s architecture. With Elphaba pushed into the background and the narrative weakened, the award refused to rubber-stamp an automatic nomination. Ariana Grande’s presence in the supporting category, in turn, reinforces the sense that the emotional center has moved. The “sex cardigan” becomes a joke, but the subtext is serious: when a work loses its dramatic heart, the industry feels it.

Some omissions, however, expose older limits of the prize. Sentimental Value, despite boasting a cast that may very well appear at the Oscars, was left out. The SAG rarely crosses linguistic and cultural borders unless a film becomes a popular phenomenon — something along the lines of Parasite. The same wall appears in the case of Wagner Moura. With Cannes, the New York Film Critics Circle, and a likely Golden Globe, his absence is not about quality but about structure: performances in non-English-language films still encounter resistance within the voting body. This does not eliminate Moura from the race, but it makes clear that his strength is anchored more in critical circles and the international circuit than in the consensus of the American industry.

Here, a personal note: Fernanda Torres was also not nominated for the SAG/Actors in 2025, yet reached the Oscars as a real possibility. Some suggest a certain xenophobia, but I disagree — Marion Cotillard was nominated in 2008, before winning the Oscar for La Vie en Rose. And since not even Stellan Skarsgård was nominated in 2026, what works “against” Wagner Moura is simply that he is in a more competitive year.

Everything points to 2026 being the year of Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. On his heels, the strongest alternative would be giving Leonardo DiCaprio a second Oscar for One Battle After Another, where he is truly excellent. Michael B. Jordan — in a dual role — is more of a dark horse, but certainly among the five finalists. Beyond these three, the two remaining slots belong to two great actors the Academy loves and who deserve it: Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon — a biopic that I predicted in Berlin would earn him this nomination — and Jesse Plemons, whom I do not believe will win for Bugonia, but who is unlikely to miss the Oscar lineup. From this group, only Hawke might fall… could it be to make room for Wagner Moura?

By contrast, some nominations feel like small acts of dramatic justice. Jesse Plemons for Bugonia represents exactly the kind of performance the SAG values: restrained, unsettling, built from the inside out. Odessa A’Zion in Marty Supreme and Miles Caton in Sinners confirm the same logic: secondary characters, one or two decisive scenes, and an impact that lingers. The actors’ prize does not vote only for careers or campaigns; it votes for moments of truth.

Among the women, there has been an attempt to construct a narrative that Jessie Buckley might face competition after her visceral turn in Hamnet. She doesn’t. Rose Byrne emerged earlier as a favorite, winning in Berlin for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, but failed to gain real momentum. Even so, she is not the only one who could theoretically challenge Jessie’s sweep. By nominating Chase Infiniti from One Battle After Another, the union elevates a young actress from the strongest film of the year. Of course, she could surprise, even if I find it unlikely. The nomination of Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue also feels curious — while Emma Stone is already the Meryl Streep of her generation: she is always nominated, and here she is again for Bugonia.

The broader shape of the season emerges with clarity. This is not a year of solitary stars or showcase films. It is a year of collective bodies, of stories sustained by friction between characters, of ensembles that function as emotional architecture. The SAG is saying, without equivocation, that the cinema it recognizes in 2026 builds worlds through interaction — not through poses.

Among the supporting categories, horror is poised to dominate: it is impossible to dislodge Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) and Amy Madigan (Weapons), but the nominees here appear to align with the Oscar race — Miles Caton for Sinners; Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another; Paul Mescal for Hamnet; Sean Penn for One Battle After Another; as well as Odessa A’Zion for Marty Supreme, Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another.

For this reason, two titles stand as complementary poles: One Battle After Another as the institutional film — the work around which the industry organizes the conversation — and Sinners as proof that genre does not limit prestige when there is human density.

And on television, anticipating the Emmys, there are few surprises. Hacks and The Studio — especially the Apple TV+ series — are the favorites in Comedy: Jean Smart will take her fifth trophy because it is impossible to avoid, just as Seth Rogen and company are likely to dominate the night with their satire of Hollywood. In Drama, The Pitt is poised to be the pick for Best Series and Actor. Best Actress in Drama should come down to Britt Lower of Severance and Rhea Seehorn for Pluribus — but Rhea is the current sensation, and everything suggests she will keep winning through the Emmys in September.

That said, yes — we will still see the dominance of Adolescence as Best Limited Series and Actor (Stephen Graham), but among actresses, Sarah Snook is likely to be crowned for All Her Fault.

In other words: between consecrations and cuts, the actors’ prize does more than list nominees — it maps belonging. And in doing so, it reveals less about who “deserves” it and more about whom, at this moment, the artistic class itself is willing to embrace as a mirror of what it believes to be the best in cinema right now.