There is a moment in every Oscar race when the season stops being a cultural conversation and starts functioning like an internal electoral system. That moment has arrived. With the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Critics’ Choice already absorbed into the narrative, the 2026 Oscar race is entering the decisive phase of the guild awards — honors that historically turn plausible frontrunners into probable winners because they reflect the direct vote of the professionals who make up the industry itself.

Among them, the most anticipated is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, scheduled for March 1. Actors form the largest branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and when they rally around a performer or an ensemble, the impact tends to reverberate in the final ballot. In a season with no consensus in the supporting categories and only a relative leader among male leads, SAG could turn trends into destiny — or dismantle predictions about who will win the 2026 Oscars.

It is not the only decisive barometer. The Directors Guild of America has an impressive track record of predicting the Best Director Oscar, while the Producers Guild of America effectively mirrors the Best Picture race by using a preferential voting system similar to the Academy’s. The Writers Guild of America, despite eligibility limitations that exclude some contenders, often consolidates the screenplay frontrunner when one script is clearly more celebrated than the rest.

The overall picture points to a division that has become the defining feature of this season. On one side, One Battle After Another stands as the prestige film, dominant in directing and technical categories, with an auteur signature that commands institutional respect. On the other hand, Sinners carries emotional and narrative strength, particularly in writing and acting. This polarization opens the door to a classic split scenario in which Best Picture and Best Director may not go to the same film.

In practical terms, the screenplay appears to lean toward Sinners, while directing — and possibly picture — leans toward One Battle After Another. Still, nothing suggests a sweep. Awards have been distributed rather than concentrated, as if different sectors of the industry were championing different visions of cinema. For anyone tracking the 2026 Oscar frontrunners, this fragmentation explains why predictions remain unstable even this late in the race.

Among the acting categories, there is one near-absolute exception. Best Actress appears settled. Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet has moved through the Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA without encountering meaningful resistance. In my personal view, she could walk onto the Dolby Theatre stage without even rehearsing, surprise. When a performance dominates critics, industry awards, and cultural conversation simultaneously, the Oscar usually just formalizes the inevitable.

Best Actor is more complex, though it still has a clear leader. Timothée Chalamet has led the season with major wins and a consistent presence in American awards. At the same time, his campaign has generated a curious backlash: the volume of commentary “against” him sometimes sounds louder than overt enthusiasm in his favor. Not for lack of merit, but because he has never hidden his desire for ultimate recognition — a paradox in an industry that rewards ambition but prefers it to be performed as modesty. This contradiction, while uncomfortable to some, is rarely enough to prevent victory when the overall trajectory points in the same direction.

Early in the race, Wagner Moura was widely discussed as a potential contender, but his chances now appear reduced. Missing nominations from BAFTA and SAG weakens any aura of inevitability, and his impact on the season has been smaller than that of Fernanda Torres in her category. Still, the Oscar nomination places him in a comfortable position within Hollywood. Moura is no longer an occasional foreign presence but a professional integrated into the system, with significant collaborations and solid industry respect. Even without a win, he exits the season closer to the center of the industry.

As for Leonardo DiCaprio, he remains a formidable competitor and a name that can never be completely ruled out. Yet unless actors themselves choose him at SAG, the most likely outcome still favors Chalamet. In acting races, support from the performer branch is often decisive.

If the lead categories have direction, the supporting races remain pure uncertainty — and that, paradoxically, is part of the ceremony’s excitement. These awards are presented early in the broadcast and immediately set the emotional tone of the night. This year, the supporting actress race mirrors the season’s central divide: the performer from Sinners versus Tayana from One Battle After Another. Both have collected significant wins, and neither has established enough dominance to make predictions safe. Personally, I would love to see Amy Madigan prevail, but that possibility appears increasingly unlikely as the race polarizes between the year’s two major films.

Supporting Actor is just as volatile. Different award bodies have chosen different winners, suggesting a fragmented electorate and balanced campaigns. In such years, the Oscar often goes not to the critics’ favorite but to the candidate who accumulates the most second-place votes — an invisible factor to the public but crucial under the Academy’s voting system.

For Brazil, the International Feature race also remains relevant. The Norwegian contender gained undeniable momentum after the BAFTA, but O Agente Secreto continues a respectable trajectory built on critical support and growing visibility. Unlike the major categories, this award depends less on guild influence and more on global perception of cultural and artistic significance, which can shift until the final ballots are cast.

What makes this season particularly fascinating is precisely the absence of a dominant narrative. No film is sweeping everything; no performance is crushing the field across all awards. Instead, the industry appears divided among different sensibilities and priorities. In this context, the guilds function less as confirmation and more as final arbitration.

If SAG, PGA, and DGA converge on the same winners, the Oscars will likely ratify that outcome. If each point is in a different direction, the March ceremony could become one of the most unpredictable in recent years. And perhaps it is this uncertainty — rare in a season increasingly shaped by campaigns and statistics — that restores something close to genuine suspense.

The 2026 Oscar race is not decided yet. But in the coming weeks, it will stop being a matter of perception and become a matter of actual votes inside Hollywood. And in that quiet contest of influence and consensus, guild awards remain the most reliable indicator of who will ultimately walk onstage as a winner.