Given a few truths about House of the Dragon — including the fact that we already know how the civil war ends (Joffrey Baratheon spoiled it for us back in Game of Thrones over a decade ago) — talking about “spoilers” is almost ironic. The ending has been out there for years, waiting for anyone curious enough to look it up.

With Fire & Blood, we now know the full scope of this story and just how tragic many of these characters’ arcs are. Some have already broken our hearts on screen. The first season had its share of painful losses, but season two raised the emotional stakes: the brutal murder of Helaena and Aegon’s children, the shocking death of Rhaenys — the Queen Who Never Was — and more.

But when it comes to death — bloody, graphic, unforgettable death — nothing will surpass the third and penultimate season of HOTD, arriving in late October 2026. Following the book’s timeline and what was teased in the closing moments of season two, this season covers the Battle of the Gullet, the fall of King’s Landing, the purge of traitors, and the first Battle of Tumbleton. Which means beloved — and hated — characters from both the Blacks and the Greens will not survive this blood-soaked year of the war.

Ready to brace for impact? Some of these deaths are virtually guaranteed; others may be shifted to season four — but all of them are coming.

The Certainties (Based on the Book and the Show’s Setup)

The first blow lands at sea. During the Battle of the Gullet, House Velaryon’s fleet clashes with the Greens — and Rhaenyra suffers her most devastating loss yet. As if Lucerys’ death in season one wasn’t enough, she will lose all the sons she had with Harwin Strong — two killed and one presumed dead.

Jacaerys Velaryon, her firstborn, is the major casualty of episode one. He is struck down, drowns after his dragon Vermax is slain, and much of Driftmark’s naval power is wiped out. To make matters worse, young Viserys II Targaryen, Rhaenyra’s second son, is captured by the Greens and vanishes from the narrative. To Rhaenyra, it is as if he were dead — a psychological blow that pushes her into grief and paranoia.

The tragedy hardens Corlys Velaryon, but also opens the door for the rise of Addam and Allyn of Hull, who become the future of House Velaryon. Addam will be legitimized as heir to Driftmark and emerge as one of the Blacks’ key dragonriders — though his heroic death is reserved for the Second Battle of Tumbleton, likely in season four.

With a partial victory at sea, the Blacks march on King’s Landing. Rhaenyra’s triumphant entry into the capital brings a wave of public executions meant to consolidate her power. Otto Hightower, the King’s Hand, is beheaded as an example. Alongside him died Jasper “Ironrod” Wylde and several lords accused of treason, including those of Rosby and Stokeworth. It is a bloody purge that marks the turning point of the war — but also deepens the climate of terror in the city.

Far from the capital, the Greens try to regroup. Criston Cole, the infamous Kingmaker, marches south but is caught in the brutal Butcher’s Ball, where he is hacked to pieces by the Riverlords. His death is a moment of grim poetic justice, ending the life of one of the most ruthless players of the war.

The Tumbleton Front

Meanwhile, the western front becomes the stage for the chaotic First Battle of Tumbleton, one of the bloodiest engagements of the entire war — and that’s saying something. This is where we finally meet Prince Daeron Targaryen, the “good prince,” mounted on the magnificent dragon Tessarion. Daeron shines here, leading the Greens to a hard-fought victory, but the cost is staggering: Ormund Hightower, commander of the Green host, is killed, as is his kinsman Bryndon Hightower. Both are struck down by the Northern Winter Wolves who marched to support Rhaenyra.

The Winter Wolves pay a price of their own — their leader, Roderick “Roddy the Ruin” Dustin, is slain soon after, leaving both sides in chaos. Other knights meet grisly fates as well: Ser Pate of Longleaf is trampled to death, and Ser Garibald Grey is burned alive by Tessarion. Daeron survives — for now — making his eventual death in season four all the more tragic.

Rock Bottom

When it seems things cannot possibly get worse, we reach the Storming of the Dragonpit — a violent uprising that forever changes House Targaryen’s legacy. Here, the young Joffrey Velaryon, Rhaenyra’s youngest son by Harwin, dies attempting to mount Tyraxes for the first time. Tyraxes is killed, Joffrey is thrown to his death, and torn apart by the mob. It is the symbolic collapse of the Targaryen dream: dragons slaughtered one by one, their riders butchered, their blood spilled as spectacle.

There is also the question of Maelor Targaryen, Helaena’s son, whose brutal death at Bitterbridge is a major turning point in the book. The show cut the character, so HBO may adapt this moment with another victim — but the narrative function is too important to skip. This tragedy is what drives Helaena to suicide, which could close season three or open season four.

A Bitter Ending

Season three will end on a devastating note: Rhaenyra loses two sons and believes the third to be dead, her fleet lies in ruins, and her political support begins to fracture just as she takes the Iron Throne. The Greens, meanwhile, lose Otto, Ormund, and Criston Cole — the spine of their political and military campaign.

At this point, the Dance of the Dragons is no longer a mere succession dispute; it has become a war of annihilation. The stage is set for season four, when the most iconic deaths of the entire saga — Daemon, Aemond, and Rhaenyra herself — will shake Westeros to its core.