The starting gun had already gone off — and now the Critics’ Choice Awards have turned early buzz into a concrete seasonal narrative. These awards don’t decide the Oscars or the Emmys, but they organize the board: they signal who became consensus too early, who is growing quietly, and who is already starting to fall behind despite still being “in the race.” What we saw this night was less about surprise and more about the confirmation of power dynamics.

The central showdown crystallized what had been taking shape for weeks. Uma Batalha Depois da Outra, by Paul Thomas Anderson, walked away with three key wins: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. These are not peripheral categories — they are precisely the ones that shape the narrative of an “important,” auteur-driven, inevitable film. Even without leading in total wins, the film prevailed where it mattered most.

Meanwhile, Sinners, the social horror film that uses vampires as a metaphor for race, structural violence, and power in segregated America, confirmed its strength with four wins: Best Original Screenplay, Best Score, Best Casting, and Best Young Actor (Miles Caton). It’s a strong package that signals both technical and creative prestige, but, for now, it does not dislodge the central axis occupied by Anderson. Sinners remains very much alive, but as a film growing from the edges inward, Uma Batalha Depois da Outra already sits at the center of the room.

If there were any doubts about Timothée Chalamet’s moment, they’re gone. His Best Actor win for Marty Supreme came with something even more valuable at this stage of the season: a personal narrative, emotional resonance, and impeccable timing. By publicly thanking Kylie Jenner, his partner of three years, Chalamet humanized a campaign that could have felt purely strategic. It wasn’t cold calculation; it was televised affection, and that matters.

He won in an exceptionally competitive category, defeating Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura. From here on, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Chalamet moves from “promising young talent” to a true frontrunner, with symbolic capital, popularity, and a well-aligned emotional narrative.

For Wagner Moura, the loss stings, but it doesn’t diminish him. Being among these names in such a competitive year is not empty rhetoric. Still, the race is beginning to narrow.

For Brazilians, the night brought pride and discomfort in equal measure. Adolpho Veloso won Best Cinematography for Train Dreams, a technical prize that often translates well to the Oscars. Elegant, precise, unquestionable.

The episode involving Kleber Mendonça Filho, however, felt strange. On the red carpet, an E! reporter announced that O Agente Secreto had won Best Foreign Language Film and placed the statuette in his hands offstage. The director looked visibly confused. It felt improvised, almost awkward. For the more attentive, there was a sense of enforced silence: no speech, no context, no space for political commentary in a year when such commentary clearly makes people uneasy.

Regardless of interpretation, the fact remains: Kleber is virtually unbeatable in this category. The road to the Oscar looks more like a formality than a genuine contest.

On television, there were few surprises. Adolescence confirmed its absolute dominance, winning Best Limited Series and nearly every acting prize available. It was expected, and delivered with authority.

Apple TV+ emerged as the night’s biggest winner. The Studio took Best Comedy Series, Best Actor (Seth Rogen), and Best Supporting Actor (Ike Barinholtz). The Pitt won Best Drama Series, with acting prizes for Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa.

Hacks continues as the Veep of the decade: Jean Smart wins with almost procedural ease. The same is true of Sarah Snook, exceptional in All Her Fault.

One win, however, felt especially gratifying: Janelle James for Abbott Elementary. The entire season revolves around her character’s emotional and narrative expansion. The award recognizes something rare: genuine growth within comedy.

In film, Jessie Buckley won for Hamnet, cementing what already seemed inevitable: she is the actress of the year. The competition exists more on paper than in reality.

Meanwhile, Amy Madigan, who won Best Supporting Actress for Weapons, checks all the boxes the Academy loves: a long career, physical transformation, a disturbing character, and accumulated respect. Her politically neutral acceptance speech stood out. Given her history of engagement, that tone is unlikely to last as the season progresses.

The race is far from over. But after this night, one thing is clear: the map has been drawn. What we’ll see between now and the Oscars and Emmys won’t be improvisation; it will be confirmation, resistance, or collapse.

So, what’s next? The answer comes fast, and it reshapes the game. The next stop is the Golden Globes, this coming Sunday, and the race undergoes a meaningful shift. If the Critics’ Choice helped consolidate early favorites and organize consensus, the Globes reopen competition by splitting categories by genre, something that can radically alter the narrative axis.

For Brazil, the outlook is especially promising. Wagner Moura arrives at the Globes in a far more comfortable position than at the Critics’ Choice. The key “advantage” is structural: he doesn’t compete against Chalamet, who is placed in Actor – Musical or Comedy, while Wagner competes in Actor – Drama, a category in which he is seen as a favorite among international voters. This is where the race can rebalance, and where Wagner has real room to reclaim the lead in the conversation.

Beyond him, Brazil remains strongly represented with O Agente Secreto, which heads into the Globes as one of the strongest contenders in Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language. After its Critics’ Choice win and consistent critical reception, the film enters near-automatic consolidation mode. The Globes, historically more receptive to international cinema than the Academy itself, are more likely to reinforce — not question — that momentum.

Internationally, other movements gain new relevance. DiCaprio, defeated at the Critics Choice, reemerges as a real threat at the Globes precisely because of the category split and the ceremony’s more populist profile. The same applies to dramatic performances that lost ground to Chalamet but now find fertile territory outside his shadow.

In short, if the Critics’ Choice fixed narratives, the Golden Globes have the power to scramble them. Some leads will hold; others will inevitably be reassessed. For Wagner Moura, specifically, Sunday represents something rare this season: a clear chance to turn the game around.