It’s Oscar weekend, baby! And although with many categories secured, here are my guesses on who should win on Sunday the 12th.

BEST ACTOR

AUSTIN BUTLER
Elvis

COLIN FARRELL
The Banshees of Inisherin

BRENDAN FRASER
The Whale

PAUL MESCAL
Aftersun

BILL NIGHTY
Living

Will win: Brendan Fraser. Although people are not discarding an Austin Butler victory
Should win: Brendan Fraser.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

BRENDAN GLEESON
The Banshees of Inisherin

BRIAN TYREE HENRY
Causeway

JUDD HIRSCH
The Fabelmans

BARRY KEOGHAN
The Banshees of Inisherin

KE HUY QUAN
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Ke Huy Quan.
Should win: Brendan Gleeson. Much more of an actor and has a much more complex role. But anyway!

BEST ACTRESS

CATE BLANCHETT
Tàr

ANA DE ARMAS
Blonde

ANDREA RISEBOROUGH
To Leslie

MICHELLE WILLIAMS
The Fabelmans

MICHELLE YEOH
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Michelle Yeoh.
Should win: Cate Blanchett. I love Michelle, and I respect the moment and the movie, it’s her. But Cate flew into an unsympathetic, difficult, and current role. Again, that’s Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

ANGELA BASSETT
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

HONG CHAU
The Whale

KERRY CONDON
The Banshees of Inisherin

JAMIE LEE CURTIS
Everything Everywhere All at Once

STEPHANIE HSU
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis.
Should win: Angela Basset. I know Jamie Lee is like Michelle, deserves all the affection, and is in a role without glamour, it will serve as a triple tribute (father and mother who never took home an Oscar) BUT Angela Basset is the heart of Black Panther 2, never won one Oscar and would be important for everything. The chances are reduced, unfortunately.

BEST ANIMATION

GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH
THE SEA BEAST
TURNING RED

Will win: Pinocchio
Should win: I refrain from giving an opinion

BEST PHOTOGRAPHY

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS
ELVIS
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
TAR

Will win: Empire of Light
Should win: Empire of Light.

BEST CUSTOM DESIGN – COSTUME

BABYLON
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS

Will win: Elvis
Should win: Difficult. Can I not comment?

BEST DIRECTOR

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Martin McDonagh

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

THE FABELMANS
Steven Spielberg

TAR
Todd Field

TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Ruben Ostlund

Will win: “The Daniels”, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Should win: Todd Field. Tàr is brilliant, well-wound, choreographed, and extremely well-directed. For me? The best.

BEST EDITING

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
TAR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Will win: Top Gun.
Should win: Top Gun. although Everything Everywhere All At Once has great editing and a lot of chance to win, I don’t see Top Gun leaving empty-handed and the technical Oscar is compensating. It depends on the washing of the night.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
ARGENTINA, 1985
CLOSE
AND THE
THE QUIET GIRL

Will win: All’s Quiet on the Western Front, which is the darling of the hour.
Should win: 1985, Argentina.

BEST MAKEUP

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
THE WHALE

Will win: The Whale.
Should win: Tough, but Brendan Fraser’s transformation is unstoppable

BEST SOUNDTRACK

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BABYLON
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS

Will win: Carter Burwell
Should win: I’m a fan of Carter Burwell, so I’m happy.

BEST SONG

APPLAUSE
Diane Warren

HOLD MY HAND
Lady Gaga and BloodPop

LIFT ME UP
Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson

NAATU NAATU
M.M. Keeravaani and Chandrabose

THIS IS A LIFE
Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski

Who will win: Tough year, but I’ll bet on M.M. Keeravaani and Chandrabose. It’s them or Rhianna, but Black Panther 2 isn’t going strong. The presence of David Byrne on the soundtrack of the year’s favorite movie may suggest a second Oscar for him!
Who deserves to win: I abstain.

BEST MOVIE

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TAR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
WOMEN TALKING

Will win: Does anyone still have any doubts about the year of Everything Everywhere All At Once?
Should win: Tàr or Top Gun. One for the quality and the other for what it represents for the Industry, but, no way

BEST SET DESIGN

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
BABYLON
ELVIS
THE FABELMANS

Will win: Babylon
Should win: I’m fine with the pick. It would be Babylon or Elvis, according to period reconstructions

BEST SOUND

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
ELVIS
TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Will win: Top Gun
Should Win: No Other

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Will win: Avatar
Should win: Avatar

BEST ADAPTED SCRIPT

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY
LIVING
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
WOMEN TALKING

Will win: Top Gun
Should win: In this case, Women Talking and Sarah Polley, for all that she has done and still does.

BEST ORIGINAL SCRIPT

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TAR
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Tàr