On June 20, before voting had closed and while everything was still in the always risky territory of predictions, I published an analysis of who seemed strongest in the 2026 Emmy race. At that point, the question was less about personal taste and more about memory, campaigning, and timing: in a race that considers everything released between June 1, 2025, and May 31, 2026, it is not enough to have been excellent. You also have to remain alive in the Academy’s memory.

Now, with the official nominations announced, it is time to confront expectation with reality. The 2026 Emmy list confirms some obvious favorites, reshapes other races, and also helps show which series were able to turn buzz, prestige, and campaigning into actual votes.

This is also a year of small but important rule changes. The main one is in the variety categories, with the former talk show and scripted variety series races merged into a single category, now called Outstanding Variety Series. In other words, beyond the names nominated, the very structure of the awards calls for a slightly more attentive reading.

Below, see the 2026 Emmy nominees in the main categories.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” 

Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”

Mark Ruffalo, “Task”

Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat”

Noah Wyle, “The Pitt”

Here, the favorite is Noah Wyle, who already won in 2025. I am not part of the enormous group that loves The Pitt, but I do not deny that it is an awards vehicle. Here, I would give it to Mark Ruffalo or Gary Oldman. The fact that Task is here matters because we will have more seasons, therefore more chances. But Oldman has been delivering outstanding work on Slow Horses for a solid six years. The monologue in the season in which we understand what his character survived during the Cold War is Oscar-worthy. And the Emmy is the Oscar of television. Not awarding him would be an injustice.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age”

Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments”

Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”

Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus”

Zendaya, “Euphoria”

As the leader of The Gilded Age fan club, I love the recognition for the series and for Coon this year, but she has little chance. Until January, the award seemed guaranteed for Rhea Seehorn, but after Euphoria’s farewell, Zendaya will certainly win her second Emmy this year.

Drama Series

The Diplomat” (Netflix)

“The Gilded Age” (HBO Max)

“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO Max)“Paradise” (Hulu)

“Paradise” (Hulu)

“The Pitt” (HBO Max)

“Pluribus” (Apple TV)

“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)

“Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV)

It is a strong list of major successes; I do not see any surprises. Instead of The Diplomat, I would have included Task — or swapped it in for Your Friends and Neighbors. None of them takes the award away from The Pitt, unfortunately. I would give it to Slow Horses or Pluribus.

What is interesting is that A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms already showed up among the best. Holding House of the Dragon until June, keeping it out of internal competition, worked very well as a strategy for HBO. Here, the fight is between Apple TV and HBO, and tradition wins.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man”

Steve Carell, “Rooster” 

Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay” 

Jason Segel, “Shrinking”

Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”

I am the defender of Only Murders in the Building and Martin Short, but no one can take away — no one would even dare question — that the award can only go to Matthew Rhys for Widow’s Bay.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”

Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”

Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” 

Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback”

Jean Smart, “Hacks”

There are two names here that are not really in comedies, but one of them is guaranteed to win the Emmy again for an undeniable performance that is nothing less than brilliant. Yes, only Jean Smart is going to win this year, and she deserves it.

Comedy Series

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

“The Bear” (FX) 

“Hacks” (HBO Max)

“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)

“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)

“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

“Shrinking” (Apple TV)

“Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)

And for another year, the fight here will be interesting. Hacks, which took away the dominance of The Bear, which in turn had taken the crown from Abbott Elementary, should make room for the best comedy of the year: Widow’s Bay. Only Murders remains one of my favorites, but the casino season did not match the brilliance of Broadway. If Hacks does not play the farewell card, the best will indeed be Apple TV’s production.

Lead Actor in Limited or Anthology Series

Riz Ahmed, “Bait”

Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit”

Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”

Oscar Isaac, “Beef”

Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me”

I must confess that none of these performances took my breath away, but in terms of transformation, Hunnam had the bigger challenge. It would be unlikely to give Rhys two awards on the same night, but perhaps it would be the fairest choice. I am having a hard time making a prediction here.

Lead Actress in Limited or Anthology Series

Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me”

Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures”

Carey Mulligan, “Beef”

Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette”  

Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault”

Another category without much debate and with two favorites: Snook and Danes. And, since June, I have been predicting that it should be Sarah Snook.

Limited or Anthology Series

“All Her Fault” (Peacock)

“The Beast in Me” (Netflix)

“Beef” (Netflix) 

“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)

“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)

For me, this is the weakest year for limited or anthology series. Here, the only one I would consider valid is All Her Fault, but a night without Netflix winning? Unlikely. The Beast in Me should be the winner.

What are your predictions?